Fortune Teller?

Lehman Bros crashes and burns.

Merrill gets swooped up for a paultry $50Bil.

And Amazon.com enters the wine retail biz.

There's a lot happening in the world right now. I don't necessarily think the sky is falling. I think things are shaking out; things are settling- righting themselves, if you will. And here's what I foresee in the wine business...

Very much like the hardware store business, the future of the wine shop will be divided into 2 categories- the super store, and the small custom boutique. Retail shops will either evolve into one or the other, or will get bought out, or will eventually get culled out of the market.

The super shops- the Costcos, Total Wines, Amazon.coms of the world will treat wine like a product, a commodity, in which it will purely be about price and what they will advertise as an infinite amount of availability. This will serve a purpose. For those looking for the major national brands- the Gallos, the Kendall-Jacksons, the Rodney-Strongs. This will now be your best option at the lowest price. And for imports, this business will include Ruffino, Yellow Tail, Jadot, DuBeouf, Lafite, and by the way...all the classified growths of Bordeaux..plus all the major Champagne houses. All gone to the lowest bidder online at these super stores.

Let me be upfront. As much as these brands, these wines, are important in the business of buying and selling wines..I'm not interested in them. Been there, done that. Not fun.

The rest of the wine made in the world- the little projects that are (hopefully) slaved over by artisans and wine companies that truly care about their product will find homes in these large shops as well. Some anyway. And those that do- will (for the most part) get lost in these shops and sit on shelves. (By the way, this will represent a hugely strategic buying opportunity for consumers that know their stuff and can find really good wines at great closeout prices because the super stores don't have the marketing to push these wines through). But, getting back to task, the rest of all of these little wine projects will be sold by equally truly passionate people in small family run shops. Just like it's always been done. And here- I foresee the need for these shops to specialize in an area of wine in order to stand out and define themselves as destination wine shops. For example, a shop that sells all, but specializes in the small production wines of Northern California, or Barolo, or Burgundy, or Tuscany. You get my point.

All in all, the two will co-exist with one simply not ever able to do the other's job and its own. The definer will be service and marketing. And that will be the future of the business of wine.

Maybe, I'll be proven wrong. But, this is what I forsee...